How We Made 233% Trading a Starbucks Condiment Bar

A trade review and special thank you to our subscribers!

We wrote up the Mentioned “Condiment Bar” - NO contract when it was trading at 30 cents. As our machine learning system, and manual investigative research accurately forecasted: Condiment Bar was not mentioned on the Starbucks Earning call and the market resolved to NO.

Subsequently, all contracts bought at 30 cents moved to a dollar. This represented a nearly 233% return to traders that followed our research.

Our primary confidence in this trade (which was revealed exclusively to paid subscribers, among other intelligence tranches) was news cycle based. We determined the 70 percent chance of them saying it was grossly overpriced and the clear upside was in them NOT saying it.

The “Condiment Bar” news cycle, came and went. And your average Kalshi trader who trades off vibes based their positions on “Well, if they said it three calls in a row they’ll certainly say it again.”

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Don’t take our word for it

Over the past 24 hours I have been inundated on my personal line, Discord, and Substack with the overwhelming gratitude of our readers.

This past week, First Strike has seen an over 1,000% increase in free subscribers, and in turn a 75% increase in paid subscribers. To new subscribers, both paid and unpaid: Thank you!

We believe part of our growth catalyst is delivering consistently actionable market intelligence to our subscribers which in turn has led to their trading success.

Lately, our focus has been on event contracts. Primarily because mis-pricing is abundant and we have demonstrated that there is real edge here for those that are willing to do the research, and trade with a “data first” approach.

This weekend we will release our write up on Crowd Strike - CRWD 0.00%↑ and another Kalshi Earnings Call Mention Market write-up so stay tuned.