Trading Zyn US Shipment Q1 Volume on Kalshi

Four doomsday scenarios have to be true at once for the market’s bear case.

Kalshi recently launched KPI categories which allow for an interesting way for us to forecast and find edge against the masses. The contract type is different, but our philosophy remains the same: utilize statistical models, qualitative research to find where the crowd is wrong.

Kalshi traders are pricing Zyn US shipment volume for Q1 2026 at an implied median at or about 183 million cans. PMI reports the number on April 22. Based on our own research and modeling we believe Zyn will ship a number north of 183 million cans.

PMI’s own 2026 guidance calls for +15 to 20% full-year growth. Nielsen offtake ran +23% YoY in Q4 2025. Haypp’s US pouch category grew 35% in January. PMI’s CFO confirmed on the Q4 call that 25M cans of surplus channel inventory still need to unwind. Q1 is historically a build quarter, not a draw.

Every primary source on the buy side, sell side, and scanner side points up. The market is pricing down. Below is our thesis: