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We Dramatically Improved our Machine Learning Model to Price Kalshi Earnings Contracts. It Went 11/13.
The new model combines historical frequency data with AI narrative analysis to find mispriced Kalshi contracts. Here's how it performed.
Mar 7
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First Strike
3
2
1
February 2026
Mispriced Domino’s Mention Contract: Kalshi Traders Haven’t Ordered This Yet!
Why we believe this buzzword is 'baked' into the call!
Feb 22
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First Strike
7
5
After Trade Review, and Earnings Mention Market Thoughts
In light of our rapidly growing subscriber base, we’re starting this week out with a free article containing an after trade review; and thoughts going…
Feb 10
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First Strike
7
1
4
Mispriced Kalshi Contract: Snapchat Family Center
Snapchat just expanded their Family Center, will they talk about it? We don't think so.
Feb 2
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First Strike
7
1
2
CrowdStrike: A Glass DeathStar during SaaSmageddon | Short Thesis
The largest IT outage in history, an SEC/DOJ investigation, and a renewal cliff the market hasn't priced into Wall Street's most expensive cybersecurity…
Feb 1
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First Strike
12
5
3
January 2026
How We Made 233% Trading a Starbucks Condiment Bar
A trade review and special thank you to our subscribers!
Jan 29
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First Strike
10
2
8
A Tale of Two Markets: One Followed the Rules, One Rewrote Them
The "Decentralized" Prediction Market Just Picked Winners and Losers Manually.
Jan 25
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First Strike
6
1
1
Mispriced Kalshi Contract: Condiment Bar
Our machine learning model was right to flag this. It was also too conservative.
Jan 23
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First Strike
6
2
Christopher Waller for Fed Chair?
If Trump wants lower rates and Fed credibility, all roads lead to Waller.
Jan 22
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First Strike
1
Trouble in Kalshi-Rules Town
When "Warner Brothers" isn't "Warner Bros" and why it's important to read the rules!
Jan 20
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First Strike
1
2
Guilty Pleas & PIK Interest: Is MRCC Ignoring Reality at Shareholders’ Expense?
Phantom income, ‘empty shell’ entities, and a dividend feedback loop: How a zombie asset is haunting MRCC’s balance sheet.
Jan 13
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First Strike
6
1
Monroe’s Tower of Glass: Dividend Cuts, Rising Overhead, and MV Realty Allegations Facing MRCC Shareholders
A First Strike investigation into how Monroe Capital’s office move, higher occupancy costs, and exposure to MV Realty litigation may be reshaping MRCC’s…
Jan 12
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First Strike
7
7
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